An editorial in today’s South China Morning Post says:
Another big unknown is whether countries in the region will cialis cheapest online prices, despite a slowing US economy, benefit from China’s rise as a growth engine.After almost 30 years of largely uninterrupted growth, the mainland has become a powerful economic force in its own right – cialis cheapest online prices. Cialis cheapest online prices: much of its growth still depends on exports, particularly to the US, but such dependency has decreased.
Likewise an article in today’s New York Times makes the argument that:
“We’re no longer in a world where the United States sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist with Global Insight, an economics research firm in Waltham, Mass.“ Cialis cheapest online prices: you’ve got strong growth oversas, and it’s been kind of like a lifeline to the United States from the rest of the world.”
But in Asia, where growth has been strongest in recent years, many countries are still worried that American troubles could drag them down as well.Experts say those nations are less interested in extending a lifeline to the United States than in discovering whether they have reduced their ties to the American consumer.
Countries in Asia cialis cheapest online prices, particularly China, have started chafing at their dependence on the thirst of Americans for imported goods, on the sway of the American dollar around the world and on American financial institutions.
It is true, Asian business executives and economists say, that fundamental economic changes have limited Asia’s need for American consumers and financial markets.But it is still not clear cialis cheapest online prices, they say, how much effect the current financial turmoil is likely to have outside the United States.
“Definitely the reliance on the U.S.economy, particularly from the Cialis cheapest online prices: asian economies, has lessened a bit over the last five to seven years,” said Sanjay Mehta, the chief executive of Essar Shipping of India.“There will be an impact — I don’t see that there will be no impact — but less of an impact than we saw in 2001 and 2002, when the Internet bubble crashed.”
I think the idea that the rest of the world has become less reliant on US growth is based on looking at individual numbers, not aggregate numbers. For most countries, exports to the US have declined as a share of total exports over the past ten years, and most analysts have interpreted this to mean that their economies are less sensitive to US demand.
But it could also mean simply that globalization has made trade spread out more. If China, for example, shifts from exporting shoes directly to the US, to exporting shoes to Italy, which then exports them to the US after some processing, it may look like China’s dependency on the US consumer has diminished, but of course very little has changed.
Perhaps it makes more sense to look at US imports as a share of world GDP to gauge the world’s ssensitivity to the US. This has risen over the past ten years, suggesting that the world is more, not less, senstive to changes in US demand.
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