Any economist or blogger blogging about the China economy who fails to take into account the all important environmental feedbacks from the real world in China which necessarily impinge on China’s economy may not be a meathead, but any talk without environmental input then might become just idle chatter, and in the long-term, not much use at all.

Of course it is not easy to try to integrate economic theory/hearsay with hard data about China derived from the physical sciences. But this must be done, in an interdisciplinary way, in order to make any real worthwhile sense of what is happening in China.

By the way, ‘meathead’ is a jocular term with very little if any disparaging connotations. But the term ‘economist’ or ‘banker’ these days, well, what good can be said about them? The staid banker of yore is not part of our present culture.

Any economist or blogger blogging about the China economy who fails to take into account the all important environmental feedbacks from the real world in China which necessarily impinge on China’s economy may not be a meathead, but any talk without environmental input then might become just idle chatter, and in the long-term, not much use at all.

Of course it is not easy to try to integrate economic theory/hearsay with hard data about China derived from the physical sciences. But this must be done, in an interdisciplinary way, in order to make any real worthwhile sense of what is happening in China.

By the way, ‘meathead’ is a jocular term with very little if any disparaging connotations. But the term ‘economist’ or ‘banker’ these days, well, what good can be said about them?

Michael, when I am in Beijing I will surely want to meet with you at your bar. Can you drop me a note in private to let me know the address. Thanks.

You have been emphasizing a lot about China’s overcapacity leading to trade friction. While I don’t disagree with that, I do want to question the magnitude of the effects of China’s continued export. China’s exports are mostly light manufacturing goods like toys, garments and other labor intensive goods which the modernized west simply lack the competitiveness nor the will to do.

Putting it in a daily life example: China’s continued overcapacity is more likely to drive down the price tags in Walmart or Footlocker, perhaps a little bit on iPhones as well but that can hardly harm the Americans and Europeans because they have never been competing with China in those areas in the first place.

In fact, I opin that further loose credit going into China’s manufacturing sector means continuously decreasing price of consumer products which would actually suit the lowering consumption power of the developed world. Though it will serve no good for the Chinese factories because I swear most of them have already been running with extremely thin margins, and I have always argued that profits of these factories come from its labors rather than customers.

The only issue I can see is, officials of the west only look at the account numbers without digging into the context behind the numbers. I agree this is a very likely scenario, given the competence of government officials we have grown to know of… However, in that case this is more of a communication and/or trade negotiation matter rather than a real problem.