Comments on: China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/ China's financial and monetary links to the world Thu, 11 Mar 2010 18:04:09 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Twitter Trackbacks for China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” [mpettis.com] on Topsy.com http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-3337 Twitter Trackbacks for China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” [mpettis.com] on Topsy.com Sat, 29 Aug 2009 01:12:26 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-3337 [...] China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” mpettis.com/2009/06/china%E2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%E2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cgreen-shoots%E2%80%9D – view page – cached China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” — From the page [...] [...] China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” mpettis.com/2009/06/china%E2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%E2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cgreen-shoots%E2%80%9D – view page – cached China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” — From the page [...]

]]> By: Warning Signs From The Dry Bulk Sector Again! | Understanding The Stock Market http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2385 Warning Signs From The Dry Bulk Sector Again! | Understanding The Stock Market Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:34:48 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2385 [...] Professor Pettis latest piece rather interesting. Look at the size of the loan growth posted in his latest posting, China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” [...] [...] Professor Pettis latest piece rather interesting. Look at the size of the loan growth posted in his latest posting, China’s loan growth isn’t boosting my confidence in China’s “green shoots” [...]

]]> By: Twitted by TradeAllMarkets http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2359 Twitted by TradeAllMarkets Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:28:44 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2359 [...] This post was Twitted by TradeAllMarkets [...] [...] This post was Twitted by TradeAllMarkets [...]

]]> By: Twitted by longnshort http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2358 Twitted by longnshort Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:25:44 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2358 [...] This post was Twitted by longnshort [...] [...] This post was Twitted by longnshort [...]

]]> By: Matt http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2357 Matt Tue, 07 Jul 2009 19:10:24 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2357 Is the loan data available on the PBOC website? I went through a few pages of stats but I couldn't find data that matches your chart. I want to look at data going back a few years. Is the loan data available on the PBOC website? I went through a few pages of stats but I couldn’t find data that matches your chart. I want to look at data going back a few years.

]]> By: bomlat http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2354 bomlat Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:15:49 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2354 New bubbles rising in China property market: state media http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_bubbles_rising_in_China_property_market_state_media_999.html Quote: "In the southern city of Guangzhou, the downtown housing price reached 1,600 dollars per square metre in May, close to the record high of 1,700 dollars in October 2007, the report said." New bubbles rising in China property market: state media
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_bubbles_rising_in_China_property_market_state_media_999.html

Quote:
“In the southern city of Guangzhou, the downtown housing price reached 1,600 dollars per square metre in May, close to the record high of 1,700 dollars in October 2007, the report said.”

]]> By: Houhui http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2347 Houhui Mon, 06 Jul 2009 13:29:07 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2347 CNMa Zhige, i think the round of bailouts you mention began in 1999, not 2001. CNMa Zhige, i think the round of bailouts you mention began in 1999, not 2001.

]]> By: CNM Zhige http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2346 CNM Zhige Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:05:01 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2346 The recent public warnings from high officials in Beijing on loan quality and bad debt, not to mention the public call to stamp out the corrupt use of public stimulus funds at the regional level, sound eerily similar to those coming from Zhu Rongji and other senior bureacrats just before they came up with the first of China's bank bail-outs since 2001. In reality, new loans that are bad loans in the making will not be recognized as such for quite a while, so if there is a move on bad debts, one would have to presume that it would be a convenient time to sweep bad debts accumulated during good times under the proverbial rug. We will have to wait and see, but if the experience of the past decade can be taken as a guide, the politics that accompany turning points in monetary cycles are not so pretty in China. I would not be surprised, however, if the government decided to showcase whatever it does in the end as a testament to its financial strength (it is partly real, and partly illusory), before the magnitude of all of the bad debts being created at the local level (a big number even by China standards) come to light. The recent public warnings from high officials in Beijing on loan quality and bad debt, not to mention the public call to stamp out the corrupt use of public stimulus funds at the regional level, sound eerily similar to those coming from Zhu Rongji and other senior bureacrats just before they came up with the first of China’s bank bail-outs since 2001. In reality, new loans that are bad loans in the making will not be recognized as such for quite a while, so if there is a move on bad debts, one would have to presume that it would be a convenient time to sweep bad debts accumulated during good times under the proverbial rug. We will have to wait and see, but if the experience of the past decade can be taken as a guide, the politics that accompany turning points in monetary cycles are not so pretty in China. I would not be surprised, however, if the government decided to showcase whatever it does in the end as a testament to its financial strength (it is partly real, and partly illusory), before the magnitude of all of the bad debts being created at the local level (a big number even by China standards) come to light.

]]> By: bomlat http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2344 bomlat Sun, 05 Jul 2009 20:42:50 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2344 Sorry,I mean when will it reach the limit (like the shadow bankin system),and how will the correstion look like? Sorry,I mean when will it reach the limit (like the shadow bankin system),and how will the correstion look like?

]]> By: bomlat http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%e2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn%e2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9cgreen-shoots%e2%80%9d/comment-page-1/#comment-2343 bomlat Sun, 05 Jul 2009 18:32:28 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=551#comment-2343 What will the current system collapse? I mean,we was able to foresee the collapse of the shadow banking system from the begining of the 2008. China escaped this collapse by the monetary easing. But when will this system collapse,and what will be the consequence of it? I mean,as I can see it is an exponential process (the credit growth),so after a while,within a solid time period it have to collapse. What could be the minimum and the maximum time frame? And what could be the effect? In the case of the global crysis,we underestimated the effect.How will it look like in the case of China? What will the current system collapse?
I mean,we was able to foresee the collapse of the shadow banking system from the begining of the 2008.
China escaped this collapse by the monetary easing.
But when will this system collapse,and what will be the consequence of it?
I mean,as I can see it is an exponential process (the credit growth),so after a while,within a solid time period it have to collapse.
What could be the minimum and the maximum time frame?
And what could be the effect?
In the case of the global crysis,we underestimated the effect.How will it look like in the case of China?

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