Comments on: RMB 1.5 trillion in new Chinese lending — can we turn this thing off? http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/ China's financial and monetary links to the world Sun, 14 Mar 2010 23:24:12 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: The Balcony Box - Back to the future? http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2738 The Balcony Box - Back to the future? Fri, 07 Aug 2009 02:13:27 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2738 [...] Though I’m not a macro economist, this seems plausible: if individuals are cutting consumption to rebuild their balance sheets and corporations are cutting investment in the face of slack demand, then the money forced into the system by the central banks has few places to go.  Of course, the article also notes that China is expanding the money supply so rapidly that new bubbles seem a virtual certainty.  As usual, Michael Pettis has the details. [...] [...] Though I’m not a macro economist, this seems plausible: if individuals are cutting consumption to rebuild their balance sheets and corporations are cutting investment in the face of slack demand, then the money forced into the system by the central banks has few places to go.  Of course, the article also notes that China is expanding the money supply so rapidly that new bubbles seem a virtual certainty.  As usual, Michael Pettis has the details. [...]

]]> By: I was wrong about China’s prospects » Doctor Recommended http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2650 I was wrong about China’s prospects » Doctor Recommended Thu, 30 Jul 2009 14:52:34 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2650 [...] estate trip in China (Pettis) - RMB 15 trillion in new Chinese lending, can we turn this thing off (Pettis) - China: Bogus Boom? (AEI) - Beijing Borrows $8.8 Billion for Financial District (Bloomberg) - [...] [...] estate trip in China (Pettis) – RMB 15 trillion in new Chinese lending, can we turn this thing off (Pettis) – China: Bogus Boom? (AEI) – Beijing Borrows $8.8 Billion for Financial District (Bloomberg) – [...]

]]> By: The Bubble that is China » Blog for Trading Success http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2646 The Bubble that is China » Blog for Trading Success Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:58:15 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2646 [...] this to China where the banks have lent a reputed 7.4 Trillion yuan - more than the budgeted 5.6 trillion. Austrian economics says that if you inflate the money supply [...] [...] this to China where the banks have lent a reputed 7.4 Trillion yuan – more than the budgeted 5.6 trillion. Austrian economics says that if you inflate the money supply [...]

]]> By: TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Seven Notes on the China Wildcard http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2471 TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Seven Notes on the China Wildcard Fri, 17 Jul 2009 20:24:46 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2471 [...] Pettis seems to think so, and I rely on his insights: RMB 1.5 trillion in new Chinese lending — can we turn this thing off? and, I wasn’t impressed by China’s high reserve and GDP growth [...] [...] Pettis seems to think so, and I rely on his insights: RMB 1.5 trillion in new Chinese lending — can we turn this thing off? and, I wasn’t impressed by China’s high reserve and GDP growth [...]

]]> By: Roger J http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2430 Roger J Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:41:45 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2430 Prof. Pettis, There are a number of skeptic views regarding China. Among the most interesting is by Hugh Hendry, a famed British hedge fund manager. He views China as a deep & out-of-the-money call option on US GDP growth. His skepticism is expressed in these interviews: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdbUAX_y9jk&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl_Uiv89Tck&feature=related and his claims on Chinese-induced commodity boom: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AWD-05oRTc&feature=related Furthermore, there are also interesting views that China is actually now panicking... hence the trash-talks about the dollar & new world reserve currency (although there were many more fortunate times to do this, if it really was China's goal), and the phenomenal boom in lending. One summary of those views is this: http://www.howestreet.com/articles_as_pdf/2009Jul101124bsccc071009.pdf How much in agreement are you with these views? Perhaps you have more good points to add to the issue? Thanks in advance for your insights. Best regards, Roger Prof. Pettis,

There are a number of skeptic views regarding China. Among the most interesting is by Hugh Hendry, a famed British hedge fund manager. He views China as a deep & out-of-the-money call option on US GDP growth.

His skepticism is expressed in these interviews:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdbUAX_y9jk&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl_Uiv89Tck&feature=related

and his claims on Chinese-induced commodity boom:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AWD-05oRTc&feature=related

Furthermore, there are also interesting views that China is actually now panicking… hence the trash-talks about the dollar & new world reserve currency (although there were many more fortunate times to do this, if it really was China’s goal), and the phenomenal boom in lending.

One summary of those views is this:
http://www.howestreet.com/articles_as_pdf/2009Jul101124bsccc071009.pdf

How much in agreement are you with these views? Perhaps you have more good points to add to the issue? Thanks in advance for your insights.

Best regards,
Roger

]]> By: Houhui http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2429 Houhui Thu, 16 Jul 2009 03:43:26 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2429 This site is now blocked in China This site is now blocked in China

]]> By: Data Filtering | ETF Fool http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2428 Data Filtering | ETF Fool Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:24:40 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2428 [...] 1.5 trillion in new Chinese lending [...] [...] 1.5 trillion in new Chinese lending [...]

]]> By: The Pettis Banking Theorem | But Then What http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2423 The Pettis Banking Theorem | But Then What Tue, 14 Jul 2009 04:30:28 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2423 [...] is from Michael Pettis’s China Financial Markets. It should probably be like the Pledge of Allegiance used to be in school, a required recitation [...] [...] is from Michael Pettis’s China Financial Markets. It should probably be like the Pledge of Allegiance used to be in school, a required recitation [...]

]]> By: Archive » Don’t Quote Me (On Bad Loans)| China Business Blog http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-2/#comment-2421 Archive » Don’t Quote Me (On Bad Loans)| China Business Blog Mon, 13 Jul 2009 21:39:50 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2421 [...] Our quote comes from Michel Pettis, a professor at Guanghua School of Management, via his blog, China Financial Markets. [...] [...] Our quote comes from Michel Pettis, a professor at Guanghua School of Management, via his blog, China Financial Markets. [...]

]]> By: China to Switch Off Bubble-Blowing Machine? | MORTGAGES http://mpettis.com/2009/07/rmb-15-trillion-in-new-chinese-lending-can-we-turn-this-thing-off/comment-page-1/#comment-2420 China to Switch Off Bubble-Blowing Machine? | MORTGAGES Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:55:37 +0000 http://mpettis.com/?p=566#comment-2420 [...] expert Michael Pettis writes: Today bank stocks were down, on rumors that the very high and clearly unsustainable loan growth [...] [...] expert Michael Pettis writes: Today bank stocks were down, on rumors that the very high and clearly unsustainable loan growth [...]

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