Jul 20th, 2010
In the past few weeks I have been getting a lot of questions about serial sovereign defaults and how to predict which countries will or won’t suspend debt payments or otherwise get into trouble. The most common question is whether or not there is a threshold of debt (measured, say, against total GDP) above which [...]
Apr 6th, 2010
Since this is a very long post, it may make sense first to provide a quick summary of what I am going to argue. As I have discussed often in earlier posts, pessimists are starting to worry about excessive debt levels in China, about which they are very right to worry, and many are predicting [...]
The Chinese new year has only just started, and already trade tensions are ratcheting up. This is perhaps appropriate — astrologers tell us that the year of the Tiger is often a year of instability and conflict — and I suspect things will almost certainly get worse. The timing of various domestic political events in [...]
Feb 22nd, 2010
It is a real toss-up as to which generates more bizarre comment in the international press: Beijing’s long-feared dumping of US Treasuries, or the use and value of the PBoC’s central bank reserves. The revelation last week that Chinese holdings of US Treasury obligations fell in December by $34.2 billion, to $755.4 billion, generated a [...]
Jul 20th, 2009
I have wanted to discuss more on the real estate sector for a while even though I have to confess I am far from being an expert on the topic, and this in a market which even the experts find terribly confusing. What the real estate market is really telling us about underlying monetary conditions [...]
Feb 21st, 2009
Often enough I find that when people want to “prove” to me that China will continue growing well this year they simply quote government statements saying that China will grow by at least 8% in 2009. There is a touching faith, especially sometimes in China, in the strong connection between expert projections and the final [...]
Jan 31st, 2009
As the rhetoric around trade continues to deteriorate and the incidence of name calling rises, it is getting harder and harder to discuss global trade and monetary conditions dispassionately and objectively. This should not come as a surprise, and is something I have been “predicting” for several years as part of the standard package of events that [...]
Jan 21st, 2009
I have been on the road for the past few (and next ten) days, in part because of Spring Festival, so I haven’t been able to post as much as I normally do, but I was asked to write an article for a Chinese magazine, which I recently finished, on comparisons between today and the [...]
Jan 7th, 2009
The piece I wrote for YaleGlobalOnline, which I mentioned in my last entry, was published today, and is called “US and China Must Tame Imbalances Together.” In the article I try to argue that the roots of the current financial imbalance – or, more accurately, of the latest and strongest stage of the current financial [...]
Nov 1st, 2008
Local stock markets ended the week with Chinese investors once again ignoring the world markets. Rising markets abroad were met with sharp declines (albeit not without some large partial reversals in the early morning and early afternoon) in China. The SSE Composite dropped 2.0% to close near its low at 1722, more than 4% below [...]