Apr 7th, 2011
I just got back from a very interesting but hectic week in New York and Washington, followed by two days at a conference in Hangzhou. During my meetings I noticed that much of the discussion, and many of the questions I was asked by both government officials and investors, focused on debt levels and reforms [...]
Jan 21st, 2011
Once again I am starting to hear investors tell me that they have been advised by bank analysts not to worry too much about the impact of a banking crisis in China. According to this argument, China has developed a very efficient and low-cost way to address banking crises, and the proof is that China’s [...]
Jul 28th, 2010
A lot of people have asked me to write about the recently “leaked” CBRC report on dodgy local government debt. Here is what the article in Monday’s Bloomberg had to say about it (and note especially that delicious second paragraph): Mainland banks may struggle to recoup about 23 per cent of the 7.7 trillion yuan [...]
Jul 20th, 2010
In the past few weeks I have been getting a lot of questions about serial sovereign defaults and how to predict which countries will or won’t suspend debt payments or otherwise get into trouble. The most common question is whether or not there is a threshold of debt (measured buy cialis online, say, against total [...]
Jul 4th, 2010
Order viagra online: just three days after returning to Beijing from New York, I had to leave again, this time to a series of conferences in Torino, Italy, so it is hard to do much writing for my blog, especially since I won’t spend my free time in the hotel when there is so damned [...]
Nov 26th, 2009
The stock market had a bad day today, with the SSE Composite down 3.62%, mainly on rumors that banks will be seeking to raise equity capital next year in response to their loan surge this year. On Tuesday Bloomberg reported that the five largest banks were supposed to have submitted plans to regulators for raising [...]
Nov 2nd, 2009
Cialis prescription online: later today I am leaving to New York and DC for a week, so this may be my last post for several days since my schedule will be pretty hectic. Of course most of my trip will involve meetings with bankers, investors and some government officials, but the timing of my visit was [...]
Oct 29th, 2009
There were two interesting and related articles Wednesday, both suggesting that the CBRC continues to be worried about the lending boom and is making what attempt it can to slow the growth of future problems. The first article, from Bloomberg, was about the CBRC’s plan to tighten rules for personal loans: China’s banking regulator said [...]
Oct 16th, 2009
The release of September trade data earlier this week was pretty interesting, although because of two or three extra working days last month, plus the very big holiday at the beginning of October which might have pushed activity into September, some of the comparisons are misleading. Exports were down 15.2% year-on-year, better than the expected [...]