Since this is another long posting, it might make sense to summarize briefly its two parts. In the first part, expanding on an OpEd piece of mine published by the Wall Street Journal on Monday, I argue that China’s “nuclear option”, which has generated a great deal of nervousness among investors and policy-making circles in [...]
I usually don’t post a new entry so soon after the last post, but there was an interesting article in today’s Wall Street Journal by Andrew Batson. China is center stage when it comes to fears that buyers will one day spurn U.S. Treasurys. The bond market has been the source of much political theater [...]
In my last entry I tried to set out the necessary shifts over the next few years as the world, and especially China and the US, works out its imbalances. These shifts will take place, I am pretty sure, but they can do so under a “good” scenario and a “bad” scenario. So what does [...]
Mar 24th, 2009
Beijing music and art Things have been so busy that I haven’t been posting as much as I would like. Besides my increased writing commitments and the constant barrage of news, I would like to mention that over the past weekend we completed the second annual festival of experimental and avant garde music, featuring [...]
Jan 7th, 2009
The piece I wrote for YaleGlobalOnline, which I mentioned in my last entry, was published today, and is called “US and China Must Tame Imbalances Together.” In the article I try to argue that the roots of the current financial imbalance – or, more accurately, of the latest and strongest stage of the current financial [...]
Nov 9th, 2008
After dropping as low as 1679 on Tuesday the Chinese stock markets managed nonetheless managed to put in a decent week, with the SSE Composite closing the week at 1748, up 1.1% for the week, helped by Tuesday’s Obama-inspired global rally. A lot of people have asked me what I think the bottom of the [...]
The Chinese stock market had a fairly volatile day, with the SSE Composite bouncing up and down by 1% or more several times during the day before it closed at 2306, down 0.8% for the day. I think we have to go back to end of 2006 before we can find a lower close. We [...]
Jun 4th, 2008
I was just sent a very interesting paper by German economist Jorg Bibow of the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College (The International Monetary (Non-)Order and the “Global Capital Flows Paradox”). In it the author considers the “paradox” of high and rising capital flows from developing to developed countries during the past decade. This is [...]
Mar 7th, 2008
Most PBoC watchers have always believed that the PBoC has been among the most vocal supporters of a stronger currency, and has argued in the past that an appreciating RMB is the best way to fight inflation. Yesterday, however, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the PBoC, surprised a number of people at his NPC-related press conference. [...]